February 24, 2024
2024 Housing Market Forecast
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As we step into 2024, the Canadian housing market presents a complex yet intriguing landscape. Let’s look into what the future holds for homebuyers and sellers across Canada, with a particular focus on the dynamic Toronto market.
The National Perspective: A Balancing Act
The Canadian housing market, as per True North Mortgage, is experiencing a period of recalibration. Higher interest rates and economic volatility have led to a cooling effect, with a slight decline in home sales and a modest increase in listings. The national average home price index stood at $719,000 in November 2023, marking a year-over-year increase of about 0.6% but a significant drop from the peak prices of March 2022.
Toronto’s Market: A Surge in Prices
Contrary to the national trend, Toronto’s real estate market is poised for a significant rebound. According to CP24, Royal LePage forecasts a 6% rise in aggregate home prices by the end of 2024, reaching an average of nearly $1.2 million. This growth is expected to be driven by a combination of factors, including anticipated interest rate cuts and a strong underlying demand for housing.
The Role of Interest Rates
The Bank of Canada’s policy decisions play a crucial role in shaping the housing market. As interest rates are expected to fall by mid-2024, this could spur a resurgence in buying activity during the spring and summer seasons. However, the impact of these rate changes will vary across different segments of the market.
Regional Variations: Calgary and Vancouver
While Toronto is set to witness one of the largest price jumps, Calgary is not far behind, with an expected 8% increase in aggregate home prices. Vancouver, maintaining its position as one of Canada’s most expensive cities for real estate, is projected to see a more modest 3% rise in average prices by the end of 2024.
The Impact of Immigration and Supply Constraints
Record immigration numbers are likely to bolster market stability and contribute to price climbs in 2024. However, challenges in the construction industry and a shortage of housing supply could exacerbate the situation, potentially leading to double-digit price increases in the coming years.
Buyer’s vs. Seller’s Market
The national sales-to-new-listing ratio (SNLR) indicates a balanced market, with slight fluctuations expected in response to economic and policy changes. In Toronto, however, the market dynamics might lean more towards sellers, given the anticipated price increases.
The 2024 housing market in Canada, especially in Toronto, is shaping up to be a year of recovery and growth. While national trends suggest a more balanced market, regional differences, particularly in Toronto, Calgary, and Vancouver, highlight the diverse nature of the Canadian real estate landscape. As always, potential buyers and sellers should stay informed and consider seeking professional advice to navigate this evolving market.
At Everything Mortgages, we strive to help first-time homebuyers, small business owners, and hardworking professionals navigate their mortgage journeys. Whether it’s securing a loan or seeking better solutions, our team is here to guide you toward becoming mortgage-free sooner and building wealth faster. Reach out to us today to explore these strategies and more.
Note: This article is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a financial advisor or mortgage professional before making decisions about your mortgage.
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